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Analysis - Looking 5 days ahead into the weather models
Analysis provided by UKww member Retron
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Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Friday.
Issued 0501, 6/02/12
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
A weak westerly flow covers the UK, with a ridge to the SW and a trough over the far east. Tomorrow a ridge builds from the east, allowing ESE'lies to affect much of England and Wales with southerlies elsewhere. The ridge continues to build on Wednesday and by Thursday it lies over northern England, with NE'lies to the south and SSW'lies or southerlies to the north.
T+120 synopsis
http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn12014.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rjma1201.gif
The jetstream chart continues to show a large ridge over the UK, while at the 500hPa level there are northerlies. The other runs all show an upper ridge over the UK, although ECM's is slightly further west which allows upper NNE'lies to cover eastern England.
At the surface GFS brings a low to the west with a ridge over England and Wales; Scotland and Northern Ireland lie under a col. MetO has SSE'lies with a trough to the west, as is the case with ECM. JMA and GEM both have southerlies, again with a trough to the west.
Evolution to day 7
ECM brings ENE'lies over England and Wales on day 6 with SSE'lies elsewhere. A ridge builds over Scotland on day 7, with WNW'lies and easterlies elsewhere.
GFS has high pressure over the UK on day 6. The high declines SW'wards on day 7, with light winds for all areas except northern Scotland, which lies under SW'lies.
Looking further afield
High pressure builds over Scotland on day 8 with ECM, with further ENE'lies elsewhere. On day 9 the high sinks SW'wards, over Northern Ireland. NW'lies and NNW'lies cover the UK. There's little change for most on day 10, as the high builds and continues drifting SW'wards. However, NW Scotland is affected by SW'lies.
GFS shows NW'lies on day 8 as high pressure ridges northwards to the west. The high drifts eastwards again on day 9 and builds over England and Wales on day 10, with SSW'lies and southerlies elsewhere.
Ensemble analysis
http://www.meteociel...1&ville=Londres
The GEFS shows five cold days followed by a return to near-normal conditions.
ECM ensembles
http://www.meteogrou...-tt6-london.gif
As has often been the case over the past week, ECM shows colder weather than GFS, with the cold continuing for another week or so.
In summary, the end of the week will see high pressure to the NE with southerlies or SSE'lies over the UK. As with the present situation, western areas will be less cold than eastern areas although at the moment most places look like seeing a dry end to the week. Over the weekend pressure will build over the UK, although it remains to be seen whether the highest pressure is over the south (in which case Scotland gets WSW'lies or SW'lies) or the north (in which case the Midlands south gets ENE'lies, as per ECM).
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